Apple's TV, Again

I wrote last spring about the persistent rumors that Apple is working on a TV set. (Steve J. himself later confirmed that something TV-related is in the works.) Re-reading my piece, I think I got a few things right. For example, Apple will not get into the business of selling giant pieces of phosphor-coated class beyond the traditional computer screens it sells today. But I sold the vision short. I didn't get it. Then today I read this article in The Globe and Mail (via John Gruber).

How could I have been. So. Blind.

It's not about the TV screen. It's about the connections.


Here's what my entertainment center looks like today, in nerd-friendly ASCII art:

    --------------                                    |
    |   TV Set   |-------------------------------\    |
    --------------                               |    |
         |                                       |----|
         |         ------------    ----------    |    |
         \---------| Apple TV |----| Router |----/    |
                   ------------    ----------         |

What a rat's nest. But to fix it, don't move the Apple TV box to the left; move it to the right. This is what you want:

    --------------                    ------------    |
    |   TV Set   |--------------------| Apple TV |----|
    --------------                    ------------    |

Forget that. This is what you really want:

    --------------                                    |
    |   TV Set   |---- //                             |
    --------------                                    |
                                                      |
    --------------                    ------------    |
    |  Computer  |---- //      // ----| Apple TV |----|
    --------------                    ------------    |
                                                      |
    --------------                                    |
    |   iPhone   |---- //                             |
    --------------                                    |

There's no longer any distinction between what's "TV" and what's "Internet"; there's just one coax going into your Apple TV. That one box replaces your cable box, it replaces your wireless router, and it replaces your DVR. It needs a big hard drive to time-shift shows and to buffer streaming content; make that hard drive a little bigger still and Apple TV can replace your Time Capsule. It's not just a home gateway; it's your own local iCloud. Your iPhone, with its built-in accelerometer, works with it as a kick-ass game controller -- did I mention that there are more games available for iOS than for all consoles that have ever existed put together? Apple TV will replace your game console too.

Everything else is wireless. Your TV set is not special; it's just one more screen. You can watch TV on any screen in your home, Hulu Plus subscription be damned. And remember when the iPhone first came out, and the ability to use it as a phone, hitherto the entire raison d'être of such devices, became just one more app on your home screen? My friends, apps are the new channels. All that crap from your cable company just got scraped together into a single-icon Legacy pile in the corner of your screen.

Why on God's green earth would the cable companies go along with something that, in the long run, demotes them from content providers to bandwidth providers? Two reasons: First, unlike Apple, they have the distribution capability for that content, and they're used to bundling DVRs and wireless routers with it already. A bundle that included an Apple TV like this would get a whole lot of people signing up for extra-premium service. Second, many markets are served by two cable companies: a great big one that gets most of the customers and a scrappy little one that gets the leftovers. Every scrappy little cable company in the country will be foaming at the mouth at the opportunity to become top dog.

Five years from now, it won't matter. The good shows will be released as separate apps in order to get premium placement on your home screen. The producers of those shows will sell you access directly, and Apple will take its cut. Your cable company will be just one more party trying to sell you a broadband connection. At that point, put an LTE chip in the Apple TV, bundle the service contract with your iPhone plan, and cut the last cable.