Friday, January 16, 2009

Keeping the Elephants Away

A man was standing on a street corner, clapping his hands. A passerby saw him and asked:
"Why are you clapping?"
"To keep the elephants away," replied the man.
"But there are no elephants."
"See? It works."
Every time I switch on the news recently, I'm verbally assaulted by people analyzing our outgoing president's "legacy." Almost everyone makes the same, absolutely nonsensical judgment:

"Whatever else you say about him, he's kept us safe; we haven't been attacked again."

It is true that there have been no further foreign terrorist attacks in the United States since September 11, 2001. It is also true that, prior to that date, there had been no foreign terrorist attacks in the United States since 1993. That attack was also against the World Trade Center; it killed six people. Prior to 1993, the most recent terrorist attack on U.S. soil that I was able to find was in 1975. That attack also occurred in New York City and killed four people.

Based on these data points (and a few others on the same page linked above), I conclude the following:
  • Foreign terrorists almost never attack the United States.
  • When they do, they usually kill very few people.
  • If you're truly paranoid, just don't live in New York City.
Let's add up some comparative numbers. With one exception, all of the following count people in the United States since 1975.

Killed by foreign terrorists:
4 (Fraunces Tavern, 1975) + 6 (World Trade Center, 1993) + 2,973 (World Trade Center, 2001) = 2,983

Killed by bee stings:
50 (average number of deaths per year) x 34 (number of years) = 1,700

Struck by lightning:
1/750,000 (odds in a given year) x 300,000,000 (U.S. population) x 34 (number of years) = 13,600

Killed by drunk drivers:
494,744 (data 1982-2006)

It's difficult to compare these numbers, since almost all of the terror-related deaths over the last 30+ years occurred within a single four-hour period. But ignoring that fact, your chance of being killed by a terrorist in a given year is something like twice your chance of being killed by a bee in that same year or the same as your chance of being killed by a drunk driver over a two-day period.

Can we stop the hand wringing and chest thumping? Please?

Word of the Day

snarge n. After a collision between a bird and an airplane, the pulverized remains of the former caked on the latter.

Khaaaan!

Ricardo Montalban, I miss you already.


"Revenge is a dish best served cold!"
- Khan Noonien Singh

"Revenge is a dish best served with pinto beans and muffins!"
- Guitierrez

Monday, January 12, 2009

Delicious Kittens

PETA, the organization "People for the non-Eating of Tasty Animals" (wait, what does it stand for again?) has decided to re-brand fish. Apparently, people enjoy hunting and eating them. But we might stop enjoying those things if, every time we thought of a fish, we instead thought of a cuddly, adorable kitten. Therefore, henceforth, fish are to be known as "sea kittens."

Mmm, tender succulent kittens. I'm willing to stop eating animals -- as soon as they stop tasting so good.


My favorite part of the site: The "Create Your Own Sea Kitten" game, wherein I can add a Fu Manchu mustache to my own delightful sea golem kitten. Save the kittens and defeat the Yellow Peril with one fell blow!

Friday, January 9, 2009

Competition at last?

...and from Palm? The company everyone thought was on the creative skids may actually have some good ideas left. On second thought, maybe that's too strong; let's say some incremental refinements to Apple's good ideas. But after the somewhat-disappointing G1 and the somewhat-ridiculous Storm, that's saying a lot.

Of course, other than a web site and a demo at CES, no one outside Palm has seen one of these gadgets yet. There's still plenty of time to learn whether we'll be over- or underwhelmed. What I'll be looking for: battery life. With multiple concurrent applications running, I'm not expecting much in that area.

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Me + You + You + You + You

I was listening to a radio interview with Clay Shirky about his book, "Here Comes Everybody: The Power of Organizing without Organization." The conversation was about "Web 2.0" and the collaborative nature of popular online applications like Wikipedia. The author made the point that where previous IT efforts were along the lines of "let's create a huge new database from the ground up," the most successful projects of today start out very small but allow large numbers of people to contribute, so that the service/application improves bit by bit over time.

None of that's particularly new or interesting, but it made me think about how Wikipedia, Twitter, Craig's List, and the like (1) are all quite different from most traditional desktop applications in function and (2) have very different models for their content vs. their infrastructure.

(1): Traditional applications are about document recording, creation, and/or editing. This is true whether you're talking about word processors, spreadsheets, music composition applications, video recording and editing applications, or almost every other category you can think of.
The exceptions that prove the rule are email and instant messaging applications, but these have demonstrated almost no innovation for a decade and are rapidly being embedded into other products, whether hardware -- e.g. mobile devices -- or software -- e.g. FaceBook.
By contrast, Web 2.0 applications are almost all about information sharing and publication. The content is much more free form and is created much more quickly. The focus is not so much on the quality of that content per se, but simply on its existence, on distributing it as easily as possible, and often on its social significance. Tweeting or posting on Wikipedia is very different from drafting a chapter of a book in Microsoft Word, although all three involve typing.
The exception that proves the rule, in this case, is Google Docs. These are, by all accounts, very cool. But they are more about cloning a pre-existing capability in a medium Google is comfortable with than about creating something totally new -- I think Google is still trying to figure out how to do that. In any case, I know a great many more users of FaceBook than I do of Google Docs.
(2): The content hosted by these applications can be incrementally increased and improved by a large community of users. But the actual software that runs these services -- the applications behind the applications, as it were -- are created in very traditional ways.

You're going to tell me that all of these collaborative applications are in fact based on Linux and Apache, which are indeed created by a large distributed community of users. But the hype of open source -- anyone can change anything! -- is belied by the reality that almost all packages have a single upstream maintainer, or a very small number, who act(s) as a gatekeeper for everyone else. These packages are then assembled into distributions by large, traditional enterprises like Novell, Red Hat, IBM, and the like.

What I'm getting at is this half-baked idea: what if we could build software the way we build content? What if I could add a tiny feature to a piece of software as easily as I can add a paragraph to a Wikipedia article, so that all of the applications I use every day get better day by day through the efforts of other users? No one knows how to do that today, and I certainly don't have any answers. The isolation between pieces of software is too poor today to keep one thing from breaking another. But I like the idea; I'll keep thinking about it. Web 3.0, anyone?
One more exception: FaceBook applications (or SalesForce applications, for that matter). Anyone can write one and add it to the platform. But while these applications decorate the platform, they don't modify that platform or interact with one another to achieve any kind of synergy. The best is yet to come.