Keeping the Elephants Away

A man was standing on a street corner, clapping his hands. A passerby saw him and asked:

"Why are you clapping?"

"To keep the elephants away," replied the man.

"But there are no elephants."

"See? It works."

Every time I switch on the news recently, I'm verbally assaulted by people analyzing our outgoing president's "legacy." Almost everyone makes the same, absolutely nonsensical judgment:

"Whatever else you say about him, he's kept us safe; we haven't been attacked again."

It is true that there have been no further foreign terrorist attacks in the United States since September 11, 2001. It is also true that, prior to that date, there had been no foreign terrorist attacks in the United States since 1993. That attack was also against the World Trade Center; it killed six people. Prior to 1993, the most recent terrorist attack on U.S. soil that I was able to find was in 1975. That attack also occurred in New York City and killed four people.

Based on these data points (and a few others on the same page linked above), I conclude the following:

• Foreign terrorists almost never attack the United States.
• When they do, they usually kill very few people.
• If you're truly paranoid, just don't live in New York City.

Let's add up some comparative numbers. With one exception, all of the following count people in the United States since 1975.

Killed by foreign terrorists:

4 (Fraunces Tavern, 1975) + 6 (World Trade Center, 1993) + 2,973 (World Trade Center, 2001) = 2,983

Killed by bee stings:

50 (average number of deaths per year) x 34 (number of years) = 1,700

Struck by lightning:

1/750,000 (odds in a given year) x 300,000,000 (U.S. population) x 34 (number of years) = 13,600

Killed by drunk drivers:

494,744 (data 1982-2006)

It's difficult to compare these numbers, since almost all of the terror-related deaths over the last 30+ years occurred within a single four-hour period. But ignoring that fact, your chance of being killed by a terrorist in a given year is something like twice your chance of being killed by a bee in that same year or the same as your chance of being killed by a drunk driver over a two-day period.

Can we stop the hand wringing and chest thumping? Please?